The NFL Draft

Entering the NFL draft’s primetime showcase, you could argue that this is the Patriots party and everyone else was just invited. Looking at it quickly, the Patriots hold two picks in each of the first three rounds. But on top of that, the Patriots own three of the first 33 picks. That would be the equivalent of striking oil in your own backyard.

This is all due to the frugal dealings of mastermind Bill Belichick. Up until last year it could be argued that Bill had lost his touch in finding talent. But in the 2010 draft he struck gold: Finding five rookie starters who contributed greatly in last year’s surprising 14-2 season that ultimately ended in disappointment.

When looking at the Patriots roster, gaping holes exist in very definitive areas of the team.

Pass rush is a necessity. In modern football, where teams are throwing at a much more frequent clip an effective secondary is needed, but also consistent pressure on the quarterback is a must. The Patriots roster, as constituted, lacks the necessary players who have the ability to rush the passer. And luckily this draft is chalk full of players who can sack the quarterback.

But there are three other glaring needs on the roster. An effective replacement for Richard Seymour on the defensive line needs to be found. And the Patriots also need to address the lack of depth in the running back position, while finding some “big fatties,” or offensive lineman, as Bill calls them.

These needs should all be filled by midnight on Friday.

These are players I believe the Patriots could potentially target to fill the holes on their roster:

Pass Rushers

Robert Quinn

Robert Quinn: Robert Quinn will not be available at the 17th pick. No chance at all. He did not play a single snap last season due to interactions with a sports agent, and he has had a brain tumor removed that is not guaranteed to not return. But his talent is so immense that these red flags will be overlooked and he will be picked very early. In fact, if he had played this past season for North Carolina he would have been a top two pick. Instead, with the Patriots stock pile of draft picks, they could potentially move up into the top-10 to grab in pass-rushing dynamo. He is a big man—6’4” and weighing in at 265 pounds while running a 4.6 second 40 yard dash. Why does size matter? The way the Patriots play defense requires the edge linebacker to be of considerable size. Since Willie McGinnest retired Belichick has searched for players to replace his contributions, including cough-Adalius Thomas-cough, and Robert Quinn fits this mold to a T.

Da’Quan Bowers: Da’Quan Bowers of Clemson has incredible skill. He is a giant who has many different pass rushing moves. Unlike Quinn, who does not project to remain at his college position of defensive end, Bowers will certainly remain on the edge of the line. Generally successful college pass rushers on the end can only play on the typical 4-3 defensive line format, but Bowers has the ability to play on a 3-4 line and still get great pressure on the Quarterback. He is very similar to Mario Williams of the Houston Texans, who was drafted first overall in 2006, and if it weren’t for the incredible concern of Da’Quan Bowers knee he would almost certainly go in the top-2. Instead, his arthritis has caused him to fall into the middle-late first round group of ends. Many believe his career will be cut short due to his knee, but whichever team drafts him would probably only keep him for his rookie contract. In fact, the concern for his knee is so big in some teams they have actually taken him off their draft boards. But the Patriots have proven over time that previous injury does not concern them as much as it does other teams in the league. Case and point last year’s TE Rob Gronkowski, who ended up being one of the best players to come out of the draft.

Brooks Reed: The ability of the following players is not at the level of either Bowers or Quinn. That does not mean that these players will not end up being tremendous assets to whichever team drafts them, it just means they are not guaranteed to be a success. Truthfully, I am very high on Brooks Reed, and I think he fits perfectly into the Patriots scheme. He was a defensive end from the University of Arizona who had the innate ability to always apply pressure the quarterback. He was also an end in college, but he will be moved to outside linebacker when he suits up in the pros. He has tremendous size and power, and will be a great bull-rusher for whichever team gets him. He is not elusive per-se but he is a great ability to move laterally and get by blockers. His stock has risen of late—previously I thought he would be available for the Patriots at the 33rd pick, but now it seems like he would need to be taken with their 28th pick. He will be worth it. The fans, which still cannot get over the Patriots skipping Clay Matthews two years ago, will be happy if Reed ends up putting on a Patriots jersey.

Justin Houston: This will be a tough pick for Bill Belichick to make. Houston, out of the University of Georgia, has all the attributes Belichick looks for in a pass-rushing outside linebacker—but Houston is known for not being incredibly smart on the field, while lacking discipline off the field to take advantage of his immense skill. Also there is the news he was one of two players to fail a drug test at the NFL combine. Proving he isn’t the smartest person on earth. But besides those issues, he is a big man who has serious speed. When he locks someone up they aren’t getting away, he is a very reliable tackler. He also has very good pursuit when he attacks the passer. Fortunately for the Patriots, he will be available in the second or third round. If the Patriots think they could surround him with solid character guys to teach him how to be an NFL player, he could end up being a very big steal for the team that gets him.

Mark Herzlich

Mark Herzlich: Everyone knows Herzlich survived a rare form of cancer—Ewings-sarcoma—but then also forget that before he got this disease he was also a damn good linebacker. In fact, many saw him as the best defensive player in this draft class. He was essentially a much more athletic Mike Vrabel with better ability at tackling in the running game. After a year of recovery Herzlich returned and played solid outside linebacker, but he lacked a lot of the speed and strength he had before. But whichever team drafts him will get a great leader and potential captain, who will do great work for the community. And my gut tells me he will eventually come back to being the Herzlich of old and dominate the NFL like he was supposed to. For a late round pick, there is no reason to pass him up on potential alone, but when you throw in the fact that he is an all-time character guy, no risk exists.

Defensive Ends (Richard Seymour replacements)

Cameron Jordan: The player I pray the Patriots get if they stay at 17. In fact to be safe, I would move up and get him because he could very well be gone. He is a strong, strong man. He gets pressure on the passer while containing the run. He will become a ten sack a year player. He is Willie McGinnest-redux. He is fast, huge and smart. He is the prototypical Patriot.

Nick Fairley: Nick Fairley had one great year at Auburn. And his great year was really great, in fact legendary. He stuffed the run at defensive tackle, while applying great pressure on the quarterback. He was really a freak of nature. He is a huge man. He could play a 4-3 defensive tackle or play a 3-4 defensive end. He will be a dominate player in the NFL. There is concern with his work ethic, his motor and the fact that he is done it for only one year. His football aptitude is not what it should be. This player will not be available at 17 and will be gone before the 9th pick for sure. But there is an outside possibility the Patriots make a play for Fairley—though I highly doubt it.

J.J. Watt: J.J. Watt is a very similar player to Richard Seymour. He is a strong player who has much of the skills the Patriots look for in a player. He is smart, has a constant motor and can stuff the run with the best of him. He is very similar to Cameron Jordan, but he lacks the pass rushing potential that Jordan has due to the fact that he is slower and lack the same agility. He has been known to occasionally stand up and loose position. That can easily be fixed. He will be a great player in the league for many years, but he will not have the same potential as Jordan, which is why I think he is a lesser prospect.

Running Backs

Mark Ingram: Mark Ingram won a Heisman trophy his sophomore year. His junior year was hampered by injuries, and he lost some carries to fellow Alabama running backs. But it is well documented that Nick Saban-coached players are highly regarded by Bill Belichick, and this does not change with Mark Ingram. Ingram is not a burner by any stretch of the imagination. But he is consistent and can come into the NFL and run for 1,000 yards right away. He will be a ten-year back and put up great numbers, nothing spectacular but very consistent. As close to Emmitt Smith as any player has ever looked.

Mikel Leshoure

Mikel Leshoure: Leshoure will most likely not get picked in the first round, this is not because of skill, but more because of the lack of running back needs by the teams drafting. He is seen by many to play like fellow Illinois running back Rashard Mendenhall, of Pittsburgh, he is powerful with moderate speed and decent elusiveness. He is by no stretch of the imagination Adrian Peterson, but he is also a consistent back with potential to surprise many. He could end up being the best running back of this draft when looked back on in 10 years.

Ryan Williams: If you can grab Williams at the end of the second round or the beginning of the third you should take him. He is elusive and fast, with a good amount of power and vision. If it weren’t for his second year that was ravaged by injury he would be a first round lock. His ability is off the charts, but he has only shown it in one season. This has scared off many scouts, on top of his obvious nagging injury concerns. Another setback was his slower-than-imagined timed 40 yard dash. Many believe he lacks the big play ability that many once thought he had. I don’t buy it, I think he will be a very good back eventually—only if he is in a 2-back system, he will not survive being a workhorse, he is too small. But if he were to share carries with, say, Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis his value could climb exponentially.

Offensive Lineman

Anthony Costanzo: Usually offensive tackles are big and fat. This is not the case with Costanzo who may be the only offensive tackle in history with a six-pack. On top of that he is a bona fide genius. He is huge, standing at 6’7” and well over 300 pounds, but this does not hinder his athleticism. He is quick and can definitely stay with some of the faster defensive ends in the league. His one negative can be found at his run-blocking. He tends to stand up and lose leverage at the point of attack. This can be fixed by a good coaching staff. He was a four year starter at Boston College, otherwise known for producing starting offensive lineman at an incredible rate. He should be able to start for the next 10 years at tackle. Not spectacular, but very, very good.

Mike Pouncy

Mike Pouncy: Brother of Pittsburgh all-pro offensive guard Maurkice Pouncy, Mike is a great athlete who excels at guard like his brother. This former Gator was moved to center this past season and struggled getting snaps off accurately. Many see him as a guard so does not seem like an issue. He will be a great guard like his brother, but he lacks the technical skills that will make him an all-time great. He lacks the mean-streak that many guards need. But whichever team gets him will see a bump in production in their running game, as he is great at run blocking.

Danny Watkins: This is the prototypical Patriot. I can easily say Logan Mankins 2.0. Like seriously, he just like Logan Mankins. There is some concern with Watkins though—he is much older than most prospects, will turn 27 his rookie season, since he took time to become a fire fighter. His size has been maxed out most likely, but he only began playing football in 2007 and will definitely get much better as a player as he gets more polish. If the Patriots were to go with an offensive lineman, I hope it is Watkins; he will be a great lineman who will be the envy of many teams.

Now, some of the players listed could easily be overlooked by the Patriots—or may not be available when the Patriots pick. Anything could happen; this is the NFL draft after all. But some players make more sense than others for the Patriots.

With the 17th pick I see the Patriots running up to the commissioner if Cameron Jordan is available. He is the ultimate Patriot—willing to sacrifice personal statistics for the team. But he reminds me of a Richard Seymour with a better ability to get to the passer. Over time I see him becoming a 10-sack-a-season end. Conversely, he will not defend the run like Big Rich did. But a team with Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo do not necessarily need another player who can contain the running back.

Cameron Jordan

The 28th pick will most likely be traded—when has there ever been a draft when Belichick did not trade at least one early-round pick for future considerations? And considering the Patriots only have five picks heading into the 2012 draft, I consider it a foregone conclusion that this pick will be moved. Most likely for a team trading back into the first round for a quarterback; a team that is high on Andy Dalton of TCU or Christian Ponder of Florida State will be remised if they did not come back to get their guy.

But if the Patriots do keep the 28th pick and Mark Ingram of Alabama is sitting there, it will be hard to pass him up. Bill Belichick trusts Nick Sabans evaluations of his players like it is gospel, and from the information coming out of the draft, nothing leads me to believe he has not given Belichick his seal of approval. And Ingram could walk into the NFL and run for a 1,000 yards easily. If he had run a better 40 yard dash at the combine, the only way the Patriots could smell him at 28 would be in a dream. But this is the fickle system of scouting, and players fall for stranger things—remember Jerry Rice and Emmit Smith were also deemed to be too slow coming out of the college ranks.

If it were up to me though, I would take Brooks Reed out of Arizona with this pick. There is no guarantee that he will be there at 33, with rumors coming out of New York that he is quickly climbing up team’s draft boards. He is as close to a Clay Matthews clone you can get—all the way down to his long blonde hair.

And with the 33rd pick I would look at someone like Mikel Leshoure out of Illinois. He is a very similar back to Rashard Mendenhal, who also came out of Illinois. I see a lot of Stephen Jackson (of the Rams) in him when I watch his game tapes. He overpowers defenders, but he lacks the blazing speed to be an elite prospect. I think he will end up being the best Running Back from this draft class.

Most likely the Patriots will also move this pick. It is well known that having the first pick in day two of the draft is like holding the winning Megabucks ticket—and I see the Patriots cashing in for a later second round pick and a future second rounder.

Regardless, the draft is fantastic theater. It is a soap opera in primetime. Except it is real life. Kids lives will be made, and teams futures will be founded—and watching the Patriots and Bill Belichick wheel and deal on draft day is like seeing Mozart write music in his prime, it’s beautiful and fluid and generally whatever comes out is a stunning result.

 


Devin Shaw is an avid sports fan and suffers the fate of being related to the owners of the Colonial Times Magazine. He also provides commentary for Rational Talk with Rich Hancock on Rational Radio in Dallas. You can listen to his segments online.

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